Future of Middle East…From Coasts of Hodeidah, & Through Gates of Yemen
Fuad Masoom
The incident of KhanSheikhan in the reaction to the act has marked the beginning of a new chapter that foreshadows dangerous military, political and security engagements in the Middle East. It was the beginning of what happened in Sept. 2013, when Former US President Barack Obama cancelled the war resolution against the ‘Chemicals of Eastern Gutha’, in the countryside of Damascus in the August same year. The account sheet submitted by President Donald Trump in his telephone conversation with King Salman a day after the “Barbaric Invasion” was not limited to mere receipt of the Tomahawk missile bill, but included preparations for the next large-scale military operations under the deal which is still being traded behind the scenes between Washington, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, leading to a map change in the Middle East that was still under favorable geopolitical conditions.
It has been discussed previously (News No.3128, March 15)
On the level demanded by Trump to wage open war, on the beam of opposition axis including Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to Iran. In the meeting with Trump the Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman, on June 14, discussed other options, notably: empowering Saudi Arabia and UAE in Yemen, Changing the facts in the field of Syria, compared to 30% of Saudi and UAE oil.
While ibn Salman has proposed five years in which the United States will receive 30% of oil revenues, Trump has maintained the option of permanent and unlimited investment, including protecting the Saudi throne from the internal and external threats. In the analysis, the “barrage of blows” there is a message to Riyadh, for it is paying the bill for the attack, that Trump has the firmness required to implement military decisions as quickly as possible and without even going to the congress. He wanted to admit that he is ready for the war just you be ready for the bill? Saudi’s immediate stance on Trump’s attack on the capillaries was not just for congratulations, but rather a clear indication that the kingdom was ready to pay the bill to feed Trump’s readiness in the field.
Saudi Arabia is just preoccupied these days with the Yemen and battle of Hodeidah, as the country which was leaning always towards the ‘proxy war’ and not faced direct wars for half a century (since the First Yemeni War in 1962) is now a different country not the same. In terms of direct US military intervention, we are facing a new equation that begins with Hodeidah and does not end in Damascus. In the estimation of Yemeni army and popular committees, the moment US participated in the aggression is the moment of ‘Historic victory’, according to field commanders. Saudi Arabia has symbolically raised its hands in the war, forcing it to resort to international powers that are not good which include Middle East, United States and some European allies.
Trump, with his meager political witts, is drawn to options that contradict his election slogans; it is not he who has embraced the option of refusing to enter the Syrian war as his predecessor, Obama, has done with a twinkle, nor is he the first to build “Great America” about the cost of engaging in ‘expensive protections’ for allies. in reality, trump is positioned in a way that makes him a mere ‘puppet’ in the hands of the US military and industrial assemblies.
The US recognizes that any military setback in Yemen means a setback to the overall war in the region. The credibility of this project is based on the fact that yemen is the weak link in the Anti-American axis and its regional alliance. The axis here represents the attempt to ‘brake’ the thrust and pressure of the axis of resistance in general, especially after the achievements of the Syrian and Iraqi fields. Britain, especially as a vital partner in the comprehensive war project, is concerned about the lessons of history, when the most powerful military forces crashed on the mountains of Yemen and its hills, unable to bear a loss in Yemen, where there is no confirmed victory so far. From the point of view of the military and political leaders in the north of Yemen, the role of the British and the Emirates in Yemen is the dirtiest, because it is based on the idea of dividing the country and control of the island and ports, and does not change that the aggression remains Saudi.
The sources in the Gulf informed that the Sheikhs of UAE are closer to Washington that the kings of Riyadh, on the basis of US agenda, also in the information is that the European proposal passed through unofficial channels from some of the movement ‘Ansarollah’ based on: the opening of Sana’a airport, in return for stopping the rocket fire on Saudi Arabia. The response: Stopping the rockets, was in exchange for stopping the flights. ‘There is no peace in Yemen, it is war and war only,’ said Ismail Wald Sheikh, assistant to the international envoy to Yemen, with Yemeni political leaders in berlin, in middle of March.
Only Russia is gleefully watching the failures of its adversaries in the Yemen arena. The absence of Moscow’s reluctance to issue UN resolution 2216 on Yemen made it easier for the parties interested in the war. Russia was therefore very pleased with Saudi Arabia’s involvement and would not hesitate to pave the way for the US to join its ally in the Yemeni mud. For reference only, the Yemeni currency is printed in Russia and then shipped to Aden. Yemeni sources say the shipments do not reach actual beneficiaries, but eventually go to al-Qaeda and ISIS. Seven months have passed since Yemeni workers have not received their salaries, while humanitarian conditions have reached the brink of mass death as a result of famine.
Does the Russia want to further complicate the Yemeni Situtation? Does it want to reproduce the ‘Afghan Model’ and retaliation that overthrew the Soviet Union by facilitating the task of all sides to confront each other and to give birth to another battle and so forth?
On March 30th “Foreign Policy” magazine quoted General Joseph Fotel, the Commander of the US Central Command, as saying that the US administration was engaged in a military operation for the Arab Alliance, including the attack on Hodeidah port, keeping Ansarollah and their allies away from it and from nearby areas. Fotel is today the main decision maker in Trump’s management and plays a pivotal role in the upcoming war in region.
in the battle of Hodeidah, Saudi Arabia insists on not to fight it alone, waiting for America. Riyadh agreed with Khartoum’s Omar al-Bashir to recruit 6000 Sudanese fighters who had gathered on the island of Zakhar north of the Hanish archipelago, off the coast of Hodeidah port, and were able to put into battle alongside with other African fighters. In the Brega camp, north-west of Aden, mercenaries are mobilized and stores are filled with US arms shipments. A military airport was also built on the island of Miyoun in the Bab-al- Mandab Strait across the UAE, which tempts the island’s inhabitants by evacuating them for generous financial compensation of up to one million dirhams.
UAE networks are operating on the island of Socotra, which was occupied by the UAE. In general, officials in the northern part of Yemen view the American scheme as wearing UAE gloves. The direct and immediate objective of the battle of Hodeidah is to strangle the Zaidi region in the governorates of Sana’a, Amran, Saada, Jouf, Hajjah, Dhamar and Mahweet, as well as parts of Ibb, El-Baida and Marib.
The strategic importance of Al-Hodeidah lies in the fact that it is the center of seaports opposite the Eritrean port of Assab. Whoever puts his hand on Hodeidah controls the 500 km long line. In Short, the strategic goal of controlling the ports of Hodeidah, makha and Aden is the prelude to a geopolitical change, not only in Yemen, but in the region as a whole.
Hodeidah also includes 40 islands, the larget of which are hanish al-Kubra, al-Sughri, Kamran and Zuhair, which are not having importance for themselves but as an entrance to the west coast from Bab al-mandab in south to the Midi in the north-west. Three operations took place in Hodeidah, but all failed, and Saudi forces could not control Midi despite its proximity to the kingdom. Control of open areas was limited and was prone to anything and everything.
The Son of Salman and Tribal Shiekhs
In sketch, the idea of the meeting dates back to the crown prince and Saudi interior Minister Mohammad ibn Nayef, but Ibn Salman seized the idea and sent it to him. The coordinator of the meeting is Fahd bin Turki bin Abdul Aziz, cousin of ibn Salman, a deputy commander of Saudi ground forces and commander of paratroopers and special forces units. In the form the meeting was held in coordination with UAE government to from a tribal leader away from the Islah Party, although the majority of the participants in the meeting were from the party. The UAE has resumed dealing with the party because it is considered a Muslim Brotherhood. The meeting lasted for an hour and a half, and the first half of it was allocated to the media. Salman hastily emphasized the Yemeni origins of the Arabs in a pathetic recovery of an incomplete lesson.
After the leaving of the press reporters, ibn Salman was alone with his guests from Yemeni provinces under the control of the coalition forces and few others living in the kingdom. He began a party “Bahadlah” for the tribal sheikhs and gifted them about the money and cars, then told them: “I came from Trump, and the war is coming to Hodeidah, and we are with America in this war.” Each sheilkh received two hundred thousand Saudi Riyals ($ 53300) and came out with the impression that the person they met was below their expectations and that he did not understand much of what he was saying.
After the meeting, large quantities of weapons were entered through the deposit port between al-Jouf and Hadramout to reach Marib, under the control of Muhsen al-Ahmar, to settle for these sheikhs to use in the internal clashes between Yemenis. Therefore, it is a decisive battle and a major epic expected, and will be determined on the basis of the fate of the war in Yemen and the geopolitical map in the region.
Hidden Trump
Wahington’s allies have seemingly conflicting bets, largely reflecting each side’s own estimates of Trump’s character. Riyadh, and as much as its renewed dreams of Trump’s arrival, it harbors great concerns about a sudden coup in its positions, forcing it to feed its business appetites. In the US geostrategic view, there are signs that Jordan and Egypt are in the grip of Saudi Arabia. A Jordanian Source told that King Abdullah addressed the Jordanian cabinet recently saying, “the Jordanians have a bigger role in the future.” According to the source’s information, this is a reference to the revival of ‘the return of supervision of Hijaz’.
Historically, one of the most prominent reasons for Abdul Aziz to the US was his fear of renewed support for Britain, his former ally, for the project of the state of supervision in the Hijaz. Faduma, like the supervisors knots of Abdul Aziz, so that John Philby, summed up the nature of the conversations that were held in the councils of Abdul Aziz as ‘sex and supervision’.
In the tanzmah massacre against Yemeni pilgrims in 1921, the pretext used by Abdul Aziz to commit the massacre was that these were agents of Sharif Hussain. In Yemen today, there is a current Hashemite stream of tribes and sects growing up and reaching the peak of the Levant. In the information , there is a Jordanian message that reached ‘Ansarollah’ and can be placed in the context of aforementioned report. The question is: is there a plan in the White House to divide Saudi Arabia? Trump continues to send signals to all concerned that the kingdom is not safe ally, and vice versa.
Another picture is the opposition to encourage the cracks between Popular Congress Party Leader Ali Abdullah Saleh and Ansarollah such that it would lead to the collapse of the bilateral alliance. Saleh’s reliance on a group of advisers of unknown ties threatens the bilateral alliance, as a result of some of the leaders affected by the alliance between the two, as the reports that are mildly and contribute to the confusion in the confidence building that prevailed over last two years of war.
While as the UAE is always bent on the internal occupation, incitement and the leadership of psychological warfare, also to trigger security incidents. The current Ansarollah and Yemeni political forces demand is that Saleh should submit the reports that he receives from his advisors and the parties to the conference for a thorough examination. He himself is not familiar with them and may weaken the internal front. Moreover, there are doubts about the links of the foreign minister in the national salvation government, Hisahm Sahraf, who is a part of the popular congress.
The problem of Ali Abdollah Saleh, as defined by those who are close to him and the two paties together, is Mohamad ibn Salman exclusively, as the rivalry took on a personal character, Salman’s son and the royal family generally do not accept Saleh as a person, despite the hospitality he enjoys in gulf capital. Salah tries to plead for ibn Salman but it is useless, and Saleh believes that his float is through the Saudi gate.
The northern forces, especially Beit alAhmar, seek to communicate with Ansarollah in response to the Saudi exclusion, by putting the hand of Hadi, in early April, the leader of the Islah party Sheikh Hamid alAhmar, came from his residence in Turkey to meet the tribal sheikhs living in the Movenpick Hotel in Riyadh. Ten minutes after his speech , a Saudi official interrupted him and asked him to stop. The meeting was unlicensed and Ahmar concluded his speech and went out with anguish and returned to Turkey.
The dispute between Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar and Hadi is deep because the latter acts on the bases that he is absolute president while as the fall of the south where there is strong opposition at the expense of Ahmar, who wanted the reward to be early.
In the summing up, the future of the region is determined by the battle of Hodeidah through the gates of Yemen, hoping to revive the new middle East project announced by former US secretary of state Condoleeza Rice in the summer of 2006. The war may not erupt at once, and may spiral to the height of the confrontation, that the next phase warns of armed clashes heated, unless the calculations of muscles are not dominant over the calculations of mind
On 6th April, the exercise of Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar UAE and United states in Kuwait took place by name “Deck of the Assassins 2017” which lasted for three weeks. The training of special teams on the offensive aimed at clearing vital marine installations and restoring areas of ‘virtual terrorists’ has been intensified in preparing the scenario of the attack on Hodeidah. At the same time, UAE Air Force participated wit the Israeli and America in a joint venture named ‘Eniohouse 2017’ in Greece on 27th March, the aim was to fight the air battles, strike ground targets and avoid anti-missiles and direct missiles, as per Israeli media.
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